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Charleston Business

2025 Atlantic Hurricane Forecast Calls for ‘Above Average’ Season

Apr 03, 2025 02:32PM ● By David Dykes

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An above-average hurricane season is projected for 2025 in the Atlantic basin, according to a forecast released April 3, 2025, by Colorado State University’s (CSU) Department of Atmospheric Science.

Led by CSU senior research scientist Phil Klotzbach, Ph.D., a non-resident scholar at the Insurance Information Institute (Triple-I), the CSU TC-RAMS research team forecasts 17 named storms, nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes during the 2025 season, which starts on June 1 and continues through Nov. 30.

typical Atlantic season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

“The tropical Atlantic is warmer than normal, although thankfully not as warm as last year at this time,” Klotzbach said. “At this point, we anticipate either neutral El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or perhaps weak La Niña this summer and fall.”

Klotzbach added, “The combination of a warm Atlantic and either neutral ENSO or weak La Niña typically yields an above-average Atlantic hurricane season.”

The 2024 season produced 18 named storms and 11 hurricanes. Five reached major hurricane intensity.

Major hurricanes are defined as those with wind speeds reaching Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Five hurricanes made U.S. landfalls last year, including three in Florida: Hurricane Debby, a Category 1 landfall in Florida’s Big Bend region near Steinhatchee on Aug. 5, with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph; Hurricane Helene, a Category 4 major hurricane landfall in the Big Bend near Perry on Sept. 26, with maximum sustained winds of 140 mph; and Hurricane Milton, a Category 3 major hurricane landfall near Siesta Key along Florida’s western Gulf Coast on Oct. 11, with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph.

Helene caused tremendous damage across the southeastern U.S., with catastrophic wind and storm surge damage devastating parts of Florida’s west coast.

Farther inland, strong winds and record-shattering flooding severely damaged portions of Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Tennessee and Virginia.

Other 2024 U.S. landfalls included Hurricane Beryl, a Category 1 landfall near Matagorda, Texas, on July 8, with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph; and Hurricane Francine, a Category 2 landfall along the southern Louisiana coast near the St. Mary/Terrebonne Parish line on Sept. 11, with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph.

CSU’s forecast also includes the following probability of major hurricanes making landfall in 2025:

  • 51 percent for the entire U.S. coastline (average from 1880–2020 is 43 percent).
  • 26 percent for the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida peninsula (average from 1880–2020 is 21percent).
  • 33 percent for the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle westward to Brownsville, Texas (average from 1880–2020 is 27 percent).
  • 56 percent for the Caribbean (average from 1880–2020 is 47 percent).

Said Sean Kevelighan, CEO, Triple-I: “This is an ideal time for homeowners and business owners to review their insurance policies with an insurance professional to ensure they have the right amount and types of coverage, allowing them to be financially protected for property damage caused by either wind or water.”

Kevelighan added, “That also means exploring whether they need flood coverage, which is not part of a standard homeownerscondorenters or business insurance policy.”

Flood policies are offered through FEMA’s National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) and dozens of private insurers.

The installation of a wind-rated garage door and storm shutters also boost a home’s resilience to a hurricane’s damaging winds, according to the Triple-I, and can potentially generate savings on a homeowner’s insurance premium.

Private-passenger vehicles damaged or destroyed by either wind or flooding are covered under the optional comprehensive portion of an auto insurance policy.

Triple-I offers numerous hurricane season preparedness tips. These include:

  • Developing a photo/video inventory of your possessions and your home’s exterior, which will ease the claim-filing process.
  • Preparing a hurricane emergency kit with a minimum two-week supply of essential items, such as drinking water, non-perishable food, medications, flashlights and extra batteries.
  • Creating an evacuation plan well before any storm warnings are issued.